Quantum Computing and Cybersecurity: Should SMEs Be Worried Yet?

Imagine a future where every encrypted email, every secure transaction, and every protected customer record you hold could be instantly deciphered. This isn't science fiction; it's the potential reality presented by quantum computing. While still in its early stages, the rapid advancements in quantum computing cybersecurity pose a significant, long-term threat to the cryptographic foundations that secure our digital world. For Irish SMEs, understanding this emerging threat isn't about immediate panic, but about strategic foresight and preparing for a future where today's robust encryption could become tomorrow's open book.

The Quantum Threat to Modern Encryption

At its core, the cybersecurity threat from quantum computing comes down to one thing: its ability to break the encryption that protects our data. Most of the world's secure communication relies on asymmetric cryptography, using algorithms like RSA and Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC). These are the systems that protect everything from your online banking to your company's VPN.

Their security rests on mathematical problems that are incredibly difficult for today's computers to solve. A standard computer would take billions of years to break a typical RSA key. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer, however, could do it in hours or minutes using Shor's algorithm. This would render much of our current public-key encryption obsolete, exposing vast amounts of data we consider safe.

This creates a unique and delayed risk known as "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" (HNDL). Malicious actors, including state-sponsored groups, are already collecting and storing massive amounts of encrypted data. They can't read it today, but they are betting that they will be able to once a powerful quantum computer is available. For businesses in Ireland, this means that sensitive data with a long shelf life—financial records, intellectual property, or personal data regulated under GDPR—could be at risk even now.

When Does This Become a Real Problem?

Estimates on the arrival of a "cryptographically relevant quantum computer" (CRQC)—one capable of breaking current encryption standards—vary. Most experts, including researchers surveyed by the Global Risk Institute, place the timeline in the 2030s. While a decade or more may seem distant, the transition to new, quantum-resistant cryptography is a complex and lengthy process.

Governments and standards bodies are not waiting. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has been leading a global effort to standardise post-quantum cryptography (PQC) algorithms. These new algorithms are based on different mathematical problems that are believed to be resistant to attacks from both classical and quantum computers. The first set of these standards has already been released.

In Ireland, the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) is actively monitoring these developments and has highlighted the strategic importance of migrating to post-quantum cryptography. The transition will not be a simple patch; it will require a coordinated effort across hardware, software, and service providers.

Post-Quantum Encryption: The Next Generation of Security

Post-quantum cryptography (PQC), also known as quantum-resistant cryptography, is the solution to the quantum threat. PQC algorithms are designed to be secure against attacks from both quantum and classical computers. They are being developed to replace our current public-key algorithms for tasks like digital signatures and key exchange.

NIST has already standardized a few PQC algorithms, including:

These new standards are the building blocks for a quantum-safe future. The next step is for the technology industry to integrate them into the products and services we use every day, from operating systems and web browsers to the security appliances in your office.

---

Free Resource: Download The Irish SME Cyber Survival Guide — 10 controls based on NCSC Ireland & ENISA guidance. Plain English, no jargon.

---

What This Means for Your Business

For an Irish SME, the quantum threat is not a problem that requires an immediate, panicked response. However, it is a strategic risk that needs to be on your radar. You don't need to be a quantum computing cybersecurity expert, but you do need to start asking the right questions.

Here are the practical steps to consider now:

1. Start the Conversation: Begin discussing the implications of quantum computing with your IT provider or security partner. Awareness is the first step toward readiness.
2. Inventory Your Data: Understand what data you hold, where it is, and how long it needs to be kept secure. Data with a long lifespan (e.g., patient records, engineering designs) is most at risk from "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" attacks.
3. Talk to Your Vendors: Ask your critical software and hardware vendors about their roadmaps for PQC adoption. This includes your cloud provider (like AWS or Azure), your firewall manufacturer, and your software-as-a-service (SaaS) providers. Their readiness will directly impact your own security.
4. Embrace Crypto-Agility: This is the ability to switch out cryptographic algorithms without a major system overhaul. As you update your systems, favour solutions that are designed with crypto-agility in mind. This will make the eventual transition to PQC smoother and less disruptive.

The goal is not to become quantum-proof overnight, but to build a posture of readiness. By taking these measured steps, you can ensure your business is prepared for the next generation of cybersecurity challenges without disrupting your current operations.

Ready to Strengthen Your Security Posture?

Pragmatic Security works with Irish SMEs to build practical, proportionate cybersecurity programmes that protect your business, satisfy regulators, and give you confidence. Whether you need NIS2 compliance support, a vCISO on retainer, or a one-off security assessment, we're here to help.

Book a free 20-minute strategy call today — no jargon, no hard sell, just practical advice from an experienced Irish cybersecurity professional.

Or contact us at [email protected] or call +353 870 515 776.

---

Take the Next Step

If your cybersecurity posture and where to focus first is something you're thinking about, the best starting point is a structured conversation.

Book a free 20-minute call with our vCISO team. We work with Irish SMEs across every sector — no jargon, no scare tactics, just clear advice on what to do next.

Book Your Free 20-Minute Call →